Well, well, well… looks like this bill passing on Thursday may not be a foregone conclusion. The Freedom Caucus has 30-40 people who could vote against the bill on Thursday, even though they are not formally opposing it. The leadership needs 21 Republicans to stay on the Ryancare train. If they lose more than 21 votes, the bill fails if the Democrats don’t break ranks and support the bill.
GOP Conservatives need to take the victory here and fight for more in the near future. I know that this bill is not anything like what many Trump supporters expected, but it is exactly what I expected to see from our gaggle of baboons* right from the get-go.
President Donald Trump told House Republicans Tuesday that they could lose re-election in the 2018 midterms if they vote against the GOP health care bill later this week that would undo much of Obamacare.
Some are calling this a “threat” by President Trump. I’m not sure it’s as much a “threat” as it is a simple observation of the nature of politics where a President is attempting to get his agenda passed, and what is going to happen to those congress critters who try to derail the Trump Doctrine by killing it before it grows.
I think President Trump is maintaining momentum and that there are indeed two more Trump Doctrine platform points that he will pursue, one for interstate Insurance competition and one for Drug market reform. With those two reforms the Ryan plan becomes somewhat more tolerable. As of right now the ACA is failing entirely. Even if this particular bill merely kicks the can down the road, I think the remaining portions comprising the proposed parts 2 and 3 of the Trump Platform would correct the Health Care system “enough” for most people.
In the end of the process Trump will have made a deal that leaves both Paul Ryan and Rand Paul somewhat unhappy, but will leave you and I “happier” for the most part. I don’t believe President Trump will abandon the “Interstate Insurance” platform issue at all.
I have said before that in my mind, the Interstate Insurance Market is the penultimate issue with regards to reforming Health Care coverage. With Drug Market reform running a close second. All of the other Ryan-Care and ObamaCare hold overs, compromises and regulation becomes much more palatable in a competitive insurance and drug marketplace.
I look at this like a guy who is building a building is going to look at it. Foundation first. The Foundation here means getting something passed quickly, then another something, then more and more.
Eating the elephant one bite at a time.
Has anyone ever, ever seen a federal program repealed, dissolved, or even rolled back?**
No matter what, this entire prospect depends upon the Senate exercising the “Nuclear Option“***
Sixty votes were never available for any of this, less so for the nonexistent “Perfect” bill that so many Conservatives are wishing for and where the ‘Good” (this bill – yea, meh) may have only ever had a chance to pass via the nuclear option.
Let’s not lose sight of the fact that this bill will hopefully help begin a snowball effect of Trumpian legislation, and that smothering this bill in it’s crib might be a bad idea for a lot of reasons.
The Interstate Insurance market as well as Drug market reform will have to be legislation as well. It would simply be impossible for Trump to do either of those reforms by Executive Order. This bill is what we call a good start.
***Regarding the Nuclear Option:
Historical lore says that the filibuster was part of the original design of the Senate. Which is simply NOT TRUE at all.
According to early Senate history, the filibuster was created by mistake in 1805 on the advice of Aaron Burr. It took several decades until the minority exploited the relaxed limits on debate, leading to the first actual filibuster in 1837.
The filibuster should be abolished once and for all by using the nuclear option one last time to reinstate the original Senate rule that allows a simple majority to vote to halt any debate.